Today, and every Saturday during the season, I’m going to be referencing these ownership percentages to discuss players we should be fading for DFS tournaments.
However, there’s an important caveat here: Sometimes these players will be an outright fade – their ownership is too high to warrant playing them at all. Sometimes these players will only be a partial fade – their ownership is too high to warrant playing them in large-field tournaments (such as DraftKings’ Millionaire Maker or FanDuel Sunday Millions) but they’re still a good enough play on paper that I might not be fading them in smaller-field (or higher stakes) tournaments. I’ll note the differences in the analysis below.
I’ll also offer potential pivot- or leverage-plays below each strategy-related fade, and, at the end of the article a few lower-owned options I think should be higher-owned than from what we’re expecting.
For a more in-depth explanation on why ownership percentages matter and what a contrarian approach entails, you can read my primer here.
Philip Rivers, QB, Los Angeles Chargers (@ Rams)
Through two weeks, the Rams defense ranks sixth-best in pressures generated per dropback, while the Chargers offense ranks sixth-worst in pressures allowed per dropback. On top of a ferocious pass-rush, the Rams also sport what’s arguably the greatest secondary in the NFL. The Rams have three starting cornerbacks who all graded out top-20 a season ago. Through two weeks the Rams have surrendered just 196.5 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, with a touchdown:interception ratio of 0:4. Priced as a top-15 quarterback on both sites, up against what’s likely the best pass defense in the NFL? No thanks to Rivers.