News & Analysis

Week 3 Daily fantasy football picks: Fades and contrarian plays

By Scott Barrett
Sep 22, 2018

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Dec 3, 2017; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill (10) catches a touchdown pass against New York Jets safety Doug Middleton (36) during the third quarter at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

This season at PFF, we’re offering projected ownership percentages for Elite subscribers. You can find them for DraftKings here and for FanDuel here.

Today, and every Saturday during the season, I’m going to be referencing these ownership percentages to discuss players we should be fading for DFS tournaments.

However, there’s an important caveat here: Sometimes these players will be an outright fade – their ownership is too high to warrant playing them at all. Sometimes these players will only be a partial fade – their ownership is too high to warrant playing them in large-field tournaments (such as DraftKings’ Millionaire Maker or FanDuel Sunday Millions) but they’re still a good enough play on paper that I might not be fading them in smaller-field (or higher stakes) tournaments. I’ll note the differences in the analysis below.

I’ll also offer potential pivot- or leverage-plays below each strategy-related fade, and, at the end of the article a few lower-owned options I think should be higher-owned than from what we’re expecting.

For a more in-depth explanation on why ownership percentages matter and what a contrarian approach entails, you can read my primer here.

Straight fades

Philip Rivers, QB, Los Angeles Chargers (@ Rams)

Through two weeks, the Rams defense ranks sixth-best in pressures generated per dropback, while the Chargers offense ranks sixth-worst in pressures allowed per dropback. On top of a ferocious pass-rush, the Rams also sport what’s arguably the greatest secondary in the NFL. The Rams have three starting cornerbacks who all graded out top-20 a season ago. Through two weeks the Rams have surrendered just 196.5 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, with a touchdown:interception ratio of 0:4. Priced as a top-15 quarterback on both sites, up against what’s likely the best pass defense in the NFL? No thanks to Rivers.

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